THE IMPACT OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE YIELD OF FIELD CROPS IN THE LEFT-BANK FOREST-STEPPE OF UKRAINE
Abstract
Different weather conditions affect plant growth rates, nutrient mobility in the soil, photosynthesis intensity, and soil biota activity. Optimization of soil water-air and nutrient regimes through land reclamation makes it possible to significantly offset the negative effects of adverse weather conditions and increase the sustainability of agrophytocenosis productivity. However, in the conditions of "organic" farming in regions with a moisture deficit without sufficient water resources and mineral fertilizers, effective agricultural production is problematic. Establishing the patterns of the influence of moisture and heat conditions at certain stages of organogenesis is the theoretical basis for increasing the sustainability of agriculture, in particular when using only natural soil fertility and secondary biomass. The aim of the work was to establish the patterns of changes in the yield of field crops in different crop rotations depending on the dynamics of agrometeorological factors in conditions of insufficient moisture in the eastern Forest-Steppe of Ukraine and to assess the productivity potential of crops, taking into account the annually changing hydrothermal conditions in the system "organic" farming system without the use of mineral fertilizers. The assessment of changes in agrometeorological resources was carried out using mathematical and statistical analysis of ten-day indicators of heat supply (air temperature and precipitation) and field crop yields. Data from a 20-year stationary experiment were processed using correlation and computational-comparative analysis methods with systematic generalization. The most reliable key periods before vegetation and during organogenesis were established, when the relationship between weather conditions and crop yields manifests itself with a sufficient level of reliability. The proposed approach is based on the formation of statistical series of yield data (15–20 years) and corresponding decadal indicators of temperature and precipitation in the local area. It is recommended to first construct graphs of the dynamics of hydrothermal conditions in years with different yields to identify periods of the most obvious deviations, and then conduct a detailed search for mathematical dependencies of productivity on weather conditions.
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